Abstract
<jats:p>This article presents an analysis of long-term changes in key climatic factors and river flow in the Shu-Talas River Basin. The aim of the study is to assess changes in the hydrological regime of rivers under the conditions of contemporary climate change. Long-term data on air temperature, precipitation, snow cover characteristics, and water discharge from the start of observations through 2023 were used. The analysis was performed using linear trends and the Mann–Kendall test, as well as by comparing hydrographs for years with different water contents across two climatic periods: before 1973 and 1974–2023. It was found that in the modern period, there has been a steady increase in the average annual air temperature (0.21–0.42 °C per 10 years), whereas changes in atmospheric precipitation are weak and spatially heterogeneous. Snow cover is characterized by a reduction in duration with insignificant changes in its maximum depth. It is shown that, on an annual scale, changes in river discharge are weak, whereas the intra-annual distribution reveals an earlier onset of the flood season, an increase in the proportion of discharge during the cold period, and a change in the shape of the hydrograph. The results obtained indicate a redistribution of discharge across seasons, with relative stability in its annual volumes.</jats:p>