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Abstract

<jats:p>This study analyzes the first‐wave economic impacts of COVID-19 in eight South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) using a systematic review of secondary sources and qualitative evidence from 26 stakeholders. The data shows significant unequal GDP declines (regionally ≈−6.7%), extensive informal sector job losses, and inflation due to supply chain disruptions and currency pressures. Interviews reveal disparities in shock absorption, social protection delivery, and policy performance between urban and rural areas, with swift, targeted measures in smaller states and delayed or uneven implementation in larger federal settings. Constrained fiscal space and rising public debt burdens, sectoral exposure (tourism, textiles, and low-productivity agriculture), and digital and administrative obstacles that hindered rapid relief are three cross-cutting vulnerabilities. The analysis further demonstrates that GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) better measures domestic capacity and recovery potential than nominal indicators during currency instability. A Sri Lankan case study illustrates how imbalances, policy mistakes, and pandemic shocks caused macro financial instability. The paper recommends a comprehensive agenda for social protection, including informal workers, investment in health systems, data surveillance, SME finance, de-risking supply chains, and strengthening regional coordination for future crisis preparedness. Despite reliance on secondary data for fast-moving indicators and an urban-skewed interview sample, the mixed-methods strategy delivers a timely, policy-relevant synthesis for resilient and inclusive recovery in South Asia.</jats:p>

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Keywords

data study south secondary informal

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