Abstract
<jats:p>Emerging and frontier markets face macroeconomic volatility, currency fluctuations, liquidity issues, and inconsistent regulations, all affecting corporate payout behavior despite dividends being crucial for investor decisions, little empirical research models dividend behavior in these extreme markets. This study creates a predictive framework for dividend policy in high-volatility emerging economies, combining firm financial metrics with market instability indicators for better accuracy. Building on Zhu and Murapiro's 2021 work on Zimbabwe, it expands the framework to include broader emerging markets with macroeconomic shocks. Using a multi-year dataset from non-financial firms, the study examines how profitability, leverage, cash flow, size, liquidity, inflation, and exchange rates influence dividends. Results show unique patterns: profitability and cash flow have stronger effects, while leverage and liquidity constraints negatively impact dividends due to higher risk and limited financing. The model helps investors, analysts, and policymakers assess firm stability and payout predictability in volatile settings. It also provides a transferable framework applicable across regions like sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, filling a gap in global corporate finance research. Grounded in empirical evidence and validated across markets, this work improves understanding of dividend dynamics in high-risk economies, aiding better investment, regulatory, and governance decisions.</jats:p>