Materials prices, market power, and the rise in processed food inflation in emerging markets: Evidence from Colombia

<jats:p>This paper estimates the transmission of materials price shocks to producer and consumer prices in the processed food industry in Colombia between 2016 and 2023. Using monthly sector-level data for 9 food-processing sectors in Colombia, and an empirical strategy that exploits variation in both time-series and cross-sectoral exposureto materials price shocks, we estimate reduced form effects on prices along the production and retail stages of the supply chain. We find that a 1% increase in materialsprices raises producer prices by about 0.6% and consumer prices by 0.3%. These effects materialize gradually, which is consistent with frictions in price adjustment. We also find that transmission rates are lower in more concentrated sectors of the food industry, consistent with theoretical predictions linking market power and incomplete pass-through. Our findings provide new evidence on the role of materials price shocks and their interaction with market structure in shaping food prices in developing countries.*****ABSTRACT This paper estimates the transmission of materials price shocks to producer and consumer prices in the processed food industry in Colombia between 2016 and 2023. Using monthly sector-level data for 9 food-processing sectors in Colombia, and an empirical strategy that exploits variation in both time-series and cross-sectoral exposureto materials price shocks, we estimate reduced form effects on prices along the production and retail stages of the supply chain. We find that a 1% increase in materialsprices raises producer prices by about 0.6% and consumer prices by 0.3%. These effects materialize gradually, which is consistent with frictions in price adjustment. We also find that transmission rates are lower in more concentrated sectors of the food industry, consistent with theoretical predictions linking market power and incomplete pass-through. Our findings provide new evidence on the role of materials price shocks and their interaction with market structure in shaping food prices in developing countries.</jats:p>