Who Reaches the NBA Draft? Dual Concentration in College and High-School Pathways (2016–2026)

<p>Public debate about who reaches the NBA draft still mixes anecdote about prep factories, suburban publics, and “kids from nowhere.” We assemble a complete finishing-school panel of 656 NBA draft picks (2016–2026)—typed into US public, local private, elite prep, and international pathways—and document dual concentration at both ends of the same file: Duke and Kentucky alone account for 9.5% of picks, the top ten college priors for 25.0%, and four elite prep feeders (Montverde, IMG, Oak Hill, Link) for 8.5%. Only 34.0% of picks finish at a US public high school; elite prep (24.8%) and local private (20.3%) together account for 45.1%, and with international pathways (20.9%) nearly two-thirds of draftees do not finish at a US public school. Formal indices sharpen the picture: the 656 picks trace to an effective field of only 83 prior institutions, and high-school feeder concentration nearly doubles between 2016–2019 and 2023–2026 (top-5 feeder share 9.0% → 16.9%; effective feeders 145 → 83) as purpose-built academies such as Link and Overtime Elite consolidate the pathway. As a supporting ecological finding—not a claim about family poverty—under a transparent rule (public finishing school in a Census place below 0.85× state median household income), 60 / 656 = 9.1% of picks follow a clearly poor-town public path (Layer A). Broader below-state public towns raise the share to 17.8% (Layer B); private/prep campuses in poor Census places (13.6%, Layer C) are context only. Place income is an ecological proxy, not family income; finishing school is not the full developmental pathway.</p>