Abstract
<p>Prior research finds that personal economic experiences typically have limited political impacts but can shape attitudes under certain conditions. Here, we explore a likely case: in Germany, Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine led to a dramatic spike in energy prices and an influx of Ukrainian refugees, both widely covered by news media. We use an online panel of German citizens (2022-2024) to assess the energy shock's impacts on immigration attitudes. Living in areas with larger natural gas price increases (and so higher residential heating costs) is associated with heightened economic distress. Yet we find no systematic evidence that these shocks shifted immigration attitudes over the subsequent 20 months, with minimum detectable effects of 0.10 to 0.18 standard deviations across our five attitude indices. Although extant research documents sizable political responses to some economic shocks, even a large, salient economic shock need not generate exclusionary immigration attitudes.</p>