Abstract
<p>Based on meta-analytic findings, Huang et al. concluded prospective cross-lagged effects between cognitive triad (i.e., negative views of the self, the world, and the future) and depression. However, cross-lagged effects may be spurious. Here, we fitted alternative models to the same meta-analytic data and found discrepant increasing and decreasing effects of cognitive triad on subsequent change in depression, and vice versa, depending on the model used to analyze the data. Meta-analytic aggregations of these discrepant effects did not differ significantly from zero. Hence, the findings by Huang et al. may have been spurious and their conclusions premature. It is important to keep in mind that correlations, including cross-lagged effects, in observational (i.e., non-experimental) data may be spurious rather than due to genuine influence. We recommend researchers to fit, in line with multiverse methodology, alternative models to data and to base conclusions on an aggregation of findings.</p>