Abstract
<jats:p>In the context of the structural restructuring of the Russian economy, the automotive industry has faced the need to adapt to new realities characterized by a change in key players and changing consumer preferences. The high uncertainty of the external environment and dependence on imported technologies increase the risks of strategic planning, requiring the use of more advanced analytical tools. The purpose of the study is to conduct a strategic analysis of the Russian car market using SWOT methods and the BCG matrix to identify structural patterns, assess the competitive positions of participants and develop forecast scenarios for the development of the industry. As a result of the research, key trends have been identified: the change of market leaders, the polarization of competitive positions and the strengthening of the role of localized industries. The proposed methodology made it possible to classify brands according to market dynamics and growth potential, identifying promising groups and risk categories. Further development of the industry requires an integrated approach that takes into account macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes and the specifics of consumer behavior. The developed forecast scenarios increase the validity of management decisions for market participants and government authorities.</jats:p>