Trends and Drivers of Cold Extremes in a Changing Climate

<jats:p>Cold extremes continue to have considerable impacts on a wide range of sectors including health, energy, agriculture, and infrastructure. On a global scale, the frequency and intensity of cold extremes are declining due to anthropogenic climate change. This general decreasing trend in cold extremes is well captured by models for the historical period. However, there are strong regional and seasonal differences in cold extreme occurrence that can be attributed to the variability of large-scale dynamical drivers of cold extremes such as sea ice, the polar stratosphere, and ENSO. The uncertain future evolution of these large-scale drivers, as well as shortcomings in our understanding of the links between these drivers and cold extremes, make it difficult to constrain the magnitude and year-to-year variability of the projected decrease in cold extremes. This review reveals a range of unresolved questions pertaining to the dynamical forcing of cold extremes and their evolution in a changing climate.</jats:p>