Assessing the impact of increasing petrol prices on activity participation: Evidence from Queensland, Australia

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Rising petrol prices are often treated as a fuel-demand or transport-cost issue, yet their effects may extend to the organisation of everyday activity participation. This paper investigates how continued petrol price increases may reshape weekly activity schedules in Queensland, Australia. Using survey data from 808 respondents, the study compares reported status-quo activity participation with a stated fuel price adaptation condition across commuting, education, grocery or essential shopping, other shopping and errands, social activities, personal business, and cancelled activities. A multivariate Generalised Poisson model with Gaussian-copula dependence is estimated to account for over-dispersion in activity counts and residual correlation across activity purposes. Results show that fuel price adaptation is associated with lower participation in most categories, with the largest reductions for social activities and other shopping or errands. Forecasts indicate declines of 12.2% in commuting, 13.8% in grocery or essential shopping, 20.2% in personal business, 26.9% in other shopping or errands, and 28.8% in social activities, alongside 1.65 cancelled activities per week. Transport disadvantage is negatively associated with participation, particularly social activities. The findings suggest that petrol-price increases represent mobility, accessibility, and participation shocks, requiring policy responses that preserve everyday access through affordable, reliable, and locally useful transport alternatives.</p>