Projected climate loss and damages from new UK oil and gas fields unequivocally show their destruction of economic value globally

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Modelled future emissions pathways compliant with limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C show the need to avoid expansion of oil and gas supply. However, several countries are examining reversals to previous bans on the licensing of new projects, driven in some cases by energy security concerns as well as the prospects of job creation and economic growth. Despite growing evidence on the economic loss and damage caused by carbon emissions, regulatory assessments for licensing typically treat the economic and environmental aspects separately. Using peer-reviewed estimates of cumulative climate loss and damages to 2100 from future emissions, we quantify the future destruction of economic value from the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the UK. We estimate that their approval is likely to lead to future damages of at least £170bn – £483 bn over their lifetime, 6 – 17 times the economic value they will generate for the UK (£28.7bn). We invert this calculation to show that only 5.9% of their future climate damages need to be felt by the UK to for them to destroy more value nationally than they create. Drawing on the existing literature on the UK’s exposure to climate risks, we discuss that this a not infeasible scenario. Amidst repeated droughts, wildfires and record temperatures in 2026, we conclude on the importance of not approving new oil and gas fields in the UK and beyond.</p>