Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>The Katavi Region in western Tanzania harbours one of the country’s most ecologically significant protected area landscapes, yet faces exceptional demographic pressure, with a 104.2% population increase recorded between 2012 and 2022. Despite documented agricultural expansion and hydrological degradation, there remains limited understanding of how these pressures are reshaping landscape structure and ecological connectivity across the broader protected-area landscape.. This study quantified land-cover composition and configuration dynamics across the Katavi landscape over 2017–2024 using the Sentinel-2 10m land-cover time series. Landscape and class metrics (FRAGSTATS definitions) were computed in PyLandStats under both 4- and 8-neighbour connectivity rules, and a pixel-wise transition matrix identified with dominant conversion pathways. Tree cover (61–69%) and rangeland (25–33%) dominated the landscape throughout the study period. The most pronounced trend was a net tree-cover increase of 4.42 percentage points coupled with a rangeland decline of 5.80 percentage points. Transition analysis confirmed that rangeland-to-tree conversion (~ 459,404 ha) was the dominant transition, nearly double the reverse flow, indicating a sustained shift toward woody dominance consistent with woody encroachment processes. Tree patches coalesced into fewer, larger stands (patch count − 30.5%; Aggregation Index 98.2), while rangeland fragmented progressively (Splitting Index + 51.4%). Anthropogenic classes, though occupying small absolute areas, exhibited large relative increases (built area + 159.7%, crops + 22.2%) proliferating as scattered patches characteristic of early-stage peripheral encroachment. All findings were robust to the connectivity rule employed. These results provide one of the first high-resolution, multi-year landscape pattern analyses for Katavi and demonstrate that landscape configuration metrics can reveal emerging conservation risks that are not evident from land-cover composition alone. The observed trade-offs between woodland expansion, rangeland fragmentation, and peripheral human encroachment highlight the need for integrated land-use planning that considers not only changes in habitat extent, but also changes in landscape configuration and ecological connectivity.</p>