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Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> <p> <bold>Background</bold> Sporotrichosis is the zoonotic disease with the largest and fastest spread in Brazil in recent decades. <bold>Methods</bold> To quantify its spread across the state of Rio de Janeiro, we developed a novel metric, designated as the Bedoya-Ramalho Index. Addresses of patients reported in the official system of the Brazilian Ministry of Health were georeferenced. The dispersion index (DI) was calculated for the entire territory from 2007 to 2023. Regression analysis was executed to obtain a specific prediction. Cluster analysis was performed to identify spatial patterns. <bold>Results</bold> Concentration of cases at the beginning of the series predominated in the central-south area of ​​the state, where the capital is located. Over time, new cases appeared in all directions, especially in the south. The dispersion occurred progressively, without much oscillation. Clusters presented spatial-temporal heterogeneity, becoming more dynamic and active over time. <bold>Conclusion</bold> This index allows for the assessment of the risk of a disease spreading to new areas, as well as the estimation of its speed and dynamics within a specific territory, making it possible to identify areas requiring greater attention regarding surveillance, control, and prevention measures. </p>

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Keywords

index disease spread state dispersion

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