Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study evaluates the impact of China's rare earth export controls (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) on global technological change using global panel data from 2006 to 2023. Employing a continuous triple-differences model with high-dimensional fixed-effects Poisson estimation, we show that supply constraints significantly drive directed technological innovation in downstream industries. Rather than shifting to risky, cross-disciplinary exploration, affected firms adjust by intensifying R&D on path-dependent trajectories, expanding team sizes, and filing defensive parallel patent families. This transition is mediated by physical import contractions and downstream economic performance shocks. Furthermore, the technological response is moderated by industry upstreamness, medium-level research intensity, and pre-existing technological independence. These findings clarify the micro-level transmission channels of critical mineral supply policies, providing empirical evidence for global supply chain restructuring and technological path dependency under geopolitical shocks.</p>