Climate change will displace habitats prioritised for marine protected areas in the high seas

<title>Abstract</title> <p>A redistribution of marine biodiversity with climate change may compromise the effectiveness of static marine area-based management tools (ABMTs). Under the High Seas Treaty, EBSAs (Ecologically or Biologically Significant Areas) are first candidates for new ABMTs. Here, we explore the projected shifts in habitat conditions from low to high carbon emissions scenarios for high seas EBSAs. We find that the distance of geographical shifts by EBSA habitat conditions can nearly triple by 2100, depending on emissions scenario, but none sustain Arctic EBSAs. Under low emissions, 94% of analysed EBSAs are likely to retain at least half of their original habitat. Habitat persistence declines to 78% and 57% of EBSAs under medium and high emissions, as habitat velocities increase 2.5-4-fold. Only about a third of high seas EBSAs appeared suited for static protection. In most other cases, the inclusion of nearby, equivalent habitats would allow protection of original EBSA conditions. Next to emissions scenario, geographical location and size predicted EBSA habitat suitability. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of carbon emission reduction and of dynamic protection measures for effective protection of marine biodiversity.</p>