Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study examined the effect of academic self-efficacy in physical education on exercise adherence among middle school students and explored its underlying mechanism. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 684 students from six regular middle schools in J Province. The research instruments included the Academic Self-Efficacy in Physical Education Scale, the Exercise Self-Regulation Scale, and the Exercise Adherence Scale. Descriptive statistics, difference analysis, correlation analysis, hierarchical regression analysis, and Bootstrap mediation analysis were used to analyze the data. The results showed that, first, middle school students’ academic self-efficacy in physical education, exercise self-regulation, and exercise adherence were generally at a moderately high level. Second, academic self-efficacy in physical education was significantly and positively correlated with both exercise self-regulation and exercise adherence, and exercise self-regulation was also significantly and positively correlated with exercise adherence. Third, after controlling for gender, school stage, grade, school location, exercise frequency, participation in sports clubs, physical education achievement, physical fitness, and screen time, academic self-efficacy in physical education still significantly and positively predicted exercise adherence. Fourth, exercise self-regulation partially mediated the relationship between academic self-efficacy in physical education and exercise adherence. The findings suggest that academic self-efficacy in physical education is an important psychological factor influencing students’ sustained exercise behavior. Physical education teaching should enhance students’ confidence in physical education learning and their exercise self-regulation ability through differentiated tasks, positive feedback, successful learning experiences, and guidance for autonomous exercise, thereby promoting the development of long-term exercise habits.</p>