Rumors Across Borders: How TransnationalTies and Social Media Shape Latino Belief inMisinformation and Support for Trump

<title>Abstract</title> <p>How do transnational information environments shape political attitudes and behavior? I argue that individuals embedded in cross-border social networks encounter distinct information environments that shape what political information they are exposed to and, under certain conditions, what they come to believe. I develop this theory through the case of growing Latino support for Donald Trump. Latinos are disproportionately embedded in transnational information environments sustained by cross-border social ties. These environments expand exposure to political information circulating across national borders, including political misinformation. Social media conditions whether that misinformation is accepted as credible. Belief in misinformation, in turn, is associated with more favorable evaluations of Trump and a greater likelihood of reporting a 2020 vote for Trump or intended support in 2024. I test the theory using an original 2024 YouGov survey with a Latino oversample. Transnational ties are robustly linked to misinformation exposure, and misinformation belief is robustly linked to Trump support and 2020 Trump vote. The conditional role of social media in shaping belief is consistent with the theory but sensitive to model specification. These findings suggest that transnational information environments are an important source of heterogeneity in political information exposure and demonstrate the value of distinguishing exposure from belief in theories of political behavior and political communication.</p>