Cross-scale Institutional Fragmentation and Panarchic Collapse: From Extractive Traps to Nested Environmental Stewardship

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Background Sustainability science faces an urgent challenge in understanding how governance failures contribute to systemic degradation of social-ecological systems (SES). This case study addresses the critical intersection of cross-scale institutional fragmentation and the risk of panarchic collapse in resource-dependent states. Methods: By synthesizing Panarchy theory with Ostrom's multi-level institutional analysis, we apply structured process tracing to examine Venezuela's oil-dependent SES between 2014 and 2021. Three mechanisms—veto-player density, exit-cost asymmetry, and functional redundancy—were operationalized to assess resilience under externally imposed institutional shocks. Results: When institutional mandates operated in isolated silos, they created rigidity traps that decoupled management actions from nested ecological feedback loops. Cross-scale fragmentation did not merely reduce production; it transformed a brittle extractive architecture into one incapable of sustaining technical maintenance, environmental monitoring, and emissions control. Energy intensity tripled and venting reached 85% of associated gas, indicating infrastructural failure rather than activity contraction. Conclusions: Extractive systems require genuine veto capacity below the executive level, positive interdependence with external partners, and redundant institutional pathways to prevent external pressure from propagating into ecological damage. These insights contribute a transferable diagnostic framework for institutional design in resource-dependent systems facing coercive shocks, directly supporting SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions), and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).</p>