Long-Term Persistence of Income Poverty: Evidence from Belgium

<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study analyses long-term income poverty in Belgium over a decade (2008–2017) using linked administrative tax records, population registers, and census data. Belgium provides a useful case for European comparison because strong national welfare institutions coexist with pronounced subnational variation in economic structure and policy.The empirical strategy applies Cox proportional hazard model to incident spells and to re-entry after exit. Results show pronounced heterogeneity by age, family structure, origin, education, employment status, and homeownership. Young adults and single parent households exhibit elevated hazards of entry and continued poverty, while higher education, stable employment, and homeownership protect against both. A subnational perspective proves essential. Longer average durations in Brussels Capital Region and several Walloon provinces, compared with most Flemish provinces, indicate a spatial concentration of persistent poverty that national aggregates obscure. While the evidence is drawn from Belgium, the study’s extended observation window and regional lens offer a methodological template for other European countries with rich administrative data but shorter follow-up periods. Longer-term coverage reshapes conclusions about who remains vulnerable and where poverty persists, with direct implications for the targeting and evaluation of social policy. As such, our findings highlight the added value of a longer observation window and a subnational lens for revealing the extent and geographic concentration of long-term poverty in Belgium.</p>