Abstract
<jats:p>Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) have emerged as an innovative mechanism for raising capital, particularly for blockchain-based projects. However, the lack of regulatory oversight and the prevalence of low-quality information raise important questions about what truly drives ICO success. While existing literature focuses predominantly on technical and signalling variables, the role of investor decision-making remains theoretically underdeveloped and empirically underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by pursuing two objectives. First, we identify the drivers of ICO success using a probit model applied to an original sample of 535 ICOs conducted between January 2016 and May 2021. Second, we investigate investor decision-making patterns using a novel dataset of 200 active crypto-forum participants over the same period. Our results have three main findings, though with modest statistical strength than initially estimated. (I) Marketing channels are the most consistent predictor of ICO success across the sample period, clearing conventional significance thresholds only in the pooled sample (z = 1.90, p&lt;0.10), with each additional channel raising the probability of soft-cap achievement by approximately 1.0 percentage point. (II) Team presentation and video presentation show no meaningful influence on success in any period. (III) Whitepaper availability is not statistically significant even in pooled sample, reinforcing rather than qualifying its irrelevance as a predictor; the number of accepted cryptocurrency price speculation rather than project fundamentals, consistent with mood and sentiment dominating information-based decision making in ICO markets, though this finding should be read alongside the data limitations discussed in 3.B. These findings contribute to the behavioural finance literature by providing an operational definition of ‘investor mood’ and demonstrating its empirical relevance in crypto markets. We conclude that understanding investor mood is not a secondary question but a necessary complement to technical analysis of ICO success.</jats:p>