Abstract
<jats:p>In the semi-arid Jel Basin (Guercif Province, Morocco), declining surface water resources highlight the need for effective groundwater assessment to sustain agricultural activities. This study applies an integrated approach combining remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and two multi-criteria decision-making methods Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multiple Influencing Factors (MIF) to map groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) in the Plaine Jel aquifer. Eight geo-environmental factors were considered, including lithology, lineament density, slope, land use/land cover, drainage density, soil, geomorphology, and precipitation. The results reveal a heterogeneous distribution of groundwater potential, with high-yield zones mainly located in the northern and northeastern areas, where favorable geological and structural conditions enhance infiltration. Model validation using ROC analysis demonstrated high accuracy, with AUC values of 91.1% (AHP) and 91.5% (MIF). Additionally, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests (2002–2023) indicate an overall stable trend in groundwater levels, despite seasonal water stress. By integrating spatial mapping with temporal trend analysis, this study provides a reliable framework for groundwater exploration and sustainable water resource management in the Jel Basin.</jats:p>