Abstract
<jats:p>The article analyzes the dynamics of the average pension size in Ukraine during 2004—2025. The relevance of the study lies in the identification of the transformation of the country’s economic growth into an increase in the welfare of pensioners. The forecast of the average pension size for 2026 was performed using the methods of correlation modeling, moving average, and exponential smoothing. It was found that all methods demonstrate different dynamics of pension growth; the most optimal and realistic can be considered the forecast obtained using the exponential smoothing method, since it best takes into account the trends of recent years and possible changes in growth rates. The forecast using the regression polynomial model of degree 5 should be considered optimistic. Using correlation-regression analysis, the strength and direction of the relationship between the size of pensions and macroeconomic indicators: gross domestic product per capita, average wage. It was determined that there is a pronounced positive statistical relationship between them, which gives grounds to indicate the dependence of the size of pension payments on the economic capacity of the state. The results of modeling indicate that pension payments have shown a steady upward trend. However, an increase in the nominal size of pensions is not always accompanied by an equivalent increase in their real value, which confirms the impact of inflation. The mechanism of interaction between the pension size and macroeconomic indicators is highlighted: gross domestic product affects pension payments through employment, wage levels, receipts to the Pension Fund, and the state’s budgetary capabilities. At the same time, this relationship is not completely linear, but depends on the demographic structure, shadow economy, pension system, and inflationary processes. Economically sound solutions in the field of the pension system of Ukraine are proposed — indexation of pensions, strengthening the connection of pension payments with labor income, strengthening the financial base of the Pension Fund, taking into account inflation risks in pension forecasting, differentiation of the pension system, and integration with macroeconomic policy.</jats:p>