Abstract
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>An invasion of Taiwan would be the most complex amphibious operation in modern history. China’s PLA would have to achieve simultaneous dominance across air, sea, cyber, space, and land domains. Taiwan would exploit its geographic advantages to mount asymmetric defenses, including mobile missiles, naval mines, drones, and urban guerrilla tactics. However, Taiwan could not prevail without direct American intervention. U.S. forces would fight through China’s “reconnaissance-strike complex” using submarines, bombers, and long-range missiles. Strikes against targets inside mainland China could be necessary, risking nuclear escalation. China also has a medieval-style blockade option to starve Taiwan of energy and food. Both scenarios would shatter supply chains and trigger a global financial crisis. America could probably defeat an invasion today, but it needs a more credible strategy to shore up conventional “deterrence by denial” for the longer term. It also needs a clearer public strategy to defeat a blockade and handle the economic fallout.</jats:p>